To the outside world, the last 18 or so months that Venky’s have been at the helm of Blackburn Rovers may have seemed like pure, impossible, unpredictable chaos – but have they had a plan all along?
Two weeks ago I picked up the book “Soccernomics: Why England lose, why Spain, Germany, and Brazil win, and why the US, Japan, Australia, turkey – and even Iraq – are destined to become the kings of the worlds most popular sport” – by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski – after reading a few chapters it became apparent that the ideologies they discussed about the way football clubs are run made very logical sense. The book itself uses statistics to explain why things in football happen and how traditional methods of running clubs set teams up to fail, drawing heavily from Michael Lewis’ ‘Moneyball’ (now a major motion picture) – now I am a bit of geek for using statistics to evidence facts, so the book immediately made sense to me. However, the more I read, particularly the opening chapters, the more I had the image of Anuradha Desai and her brothers in my head, making me think, is there method to their seeming madness? To explain this I’ve taken a few key points from the book and put them in the context of BRFC.
1. A new manager wastes money on transfers; don’t let him. – The Venky’s have hardly made any funds available for transfers since taking over the club. Allardyce didn’t get to spend a penny of their money, and Steve Kean has had a similar measly packet of spending money to spend on transfers (Scott Dann being the exception but also the point in case – he spent £6m on a defender who wasn’t that brilliant). Kuper and Scymanski argue that teams perform better with more money spent on wages, not transfers, however, to play devils advocate, arguably the highest waste Venky’s have paid since taking over has been for Roque Santa Cruz during his loan period – and that was hardly a success (Santa Cruz was mostly injured and failed to hit the net once).
2. Certain Nationalities are overvalued – This particularly looks at nationalities such as Brazilians. Venky’s have tended to look to certain ‘unfashionable’ nations such as Scotland, Serbia, Montenegro and avoided Germans, French and South Americans (one exception being Mauro Formica).
3. The best time to sign a player is when he is in his early twenties – in their first transfer window Venky’s brought in youngsters Mauro Formica and Ruben Rochina, and added to them with Goodwillie, Slew and Marcus Olsson the following season. Buying players young takes a gamble on inexperience (but not as big a gamble as buying 15-16 year olds the likes have Chelsea have started doing) but also allows for them to develop in to the player they want to be, and ultimately sell them off at a massive gain. At Ewood, this is replicated with the academy which has produced many stars over the years and has brought in huge sums of money from transfers (Duff, Dunn, Jones, Given etc.).
4. Sell any player when another club offers more than he is worth – every club will have a figure of value in mind for every player, the problem some clubs have is they get greedy and ask for more, often meaning the player in question hangs about at the club for a couple of extra years and his value decreases (or he leaves on a free transfer) – with this in mind, Arsenal would probably be wise to sell Robin Van Persie this summer. Looking at Blackburn Rovers, since pulling up a chair at the boardroom table, Venky’s have sold no less than: Phil Jones (£17m), Chris Samba (£12m), Yakubu (£1.2m), Kalinic (£5m), Roberts (£500k), and Fielding (£300k). It would be hard to argue that any of these players could have been valued at more than these figures. To add to this, the clubs that these players were sold to is also interesting – Manchester United; Anzhi; Guangzhou; Dnipro; Reading; and, Derby – at the time of their sale, these players where not going to clubs who Blackburn where likely to be competing with. The key transfer here is Samba, in the eyes of Blackburn Rovers, they did not want him going to a QPR, a Villa or a Spurs so Anzhi offered the ideal chance to cash in on him and given that he had stated his desire to leave in the press, to keep him against his could have caused further rifts in the squad. The issue Rovers fans have with the transfers is the lies about who is staying and who is going, and then allowing key players (Nelson, Emerton, Salgado and Diouf) to leave on free transfers, particular as they were experienced and senior members of the squad.
5. Replace your best players before you sell them – here Venkys have not been too brilliant. Phil Jones was not replaced until 3 weeks in to the season, where damage had already been done, similarly, Chris Samba has yet to be replaced, as too has Jason Roberts. Kalinic was replaced by Yakubu and Fielding by the upcoming Jake Kean. Emerton was replaced by Rochina, Benjani by Goodwillie, Diouf by Formica. Moving forward I think, personally, that Venky’s have a plan to replace experience with youth, cashing in both the experienced players in their prime, and then at a later date, when youth has become experience, cashing in again and started the cycle off again. This has already been seen with the first team action for the likes of Jason Lowe, Adam Henley, Grant Hanley, Raheem Hanley and Jake Kean – the worry is that, as shown last season, it may be too soon to bring these players in to the limelight for extended periods, particular when some many are promoted at once. In the Championship though, they may flourish, and with the extra games, Rovers will need squad options and depth.
6. Buy players with personal problems and help them deal with their problems – looking at the players that Venky’s have brought in, a bit of google-research quickly reveals that some have had run in with law and others clashes with other vices. Goodwillie has been the subject of lawsuits from GBH, Bradley Orr was the first footballer to wear a tag, and Yakubu hadn’t had the best of spells at Leicester and has had issues with his size. These vices arguably knock pounds off their pricetag but also gives clubs an opening offer to get them on board – “club play for us and we’ll help you with your problems”. Blackburn isn’t a big city, and this has helped other players in past avoid the limelight and turn a corner – Craig Bellamy, Paul Dickov, Andy Todd and Kieth Gillespie. These ‘vice-players’ may not be world beaters, but take away their issues and your more likely to get more than your moneys-worth.
7. Don’t pick a ex-world class player as manager – clubs have a habit of hiring coaches who have had success on the pitch but little or no experience of management, and often they fail catastrophically. Often a key issue, is whether the manager is available immediately – usually this means they have just been sacked. With Blackburn Rovers it looks very much as though Venkys have tried to avoid this problem. They removed a reasonably successful player in Allardyce and replaced him with Kean who had a near unheard of career in Scotland and Portugal. Kean has had a many years of coaching experience and has worked with a number of managers at the top-level – not too dissimilar to Jose ‘the special one’ Mourinho. Couple this with the appointment of a little known Malaysian defender/pundit Shebbi Singh and it appears that they have gone for under the radar staff with experience but not the hype to match. The question remains though, are they up to the job? With a high-profile manager it easier to lay the blame of failure at their doorstep, with unknowns, the blame can arguably still be with the players.
8. “Doing a Leeds” – cutting your wages, getting relegated, and competing at a lower level. Unfortunately for Blackburn fans, this seems to be the way the club is heading. Although removing a large wage structure and making the club more sustainable, this could arguably also be the end of the club. The failure Kuper and Szymanski talk about here is how Leeds United paid top dollar wages in the early 2000’s to get them to the Champions League semi-final, only to then be relegated with a massive wage bill which was sliced and followed by relegations through the leagues – this is obviously not the ideal way to run a football club.
It would be best here to point out that I am in no-way condoning what Venky’s have/are doing to Blackburn Rovers, and I am against their ownership and running of the club. However, those looking for reasoning behind the decisions they have made, may well find this in the fantastic book by Kuper and Szymanski – a recommended read for any football fans and those involved in the running of a club. It’s main point is that the traditional running of a football club makes no sense when put against business decisions and when combined with stats will not, in most cases, result in success. Venky’s appear as though they may have taken this on board, but what you cannot argue against is that they are certainly doing things differently to the norm.