In American Football, the concept of a “Super Bowl Window” is that a team has its best chance of winning the Super Bowl due to a number of factors; mainly: the quality and age of the quarterback; the squad depth and weapons available on both offense and defence; and, their salary cap. In the top divisions of football, the similarities with the Super Bowl window theory generally stop at how much money a team has to spend and the age of their key players. However, as you drop down the leagues, the potential for key players to be snapped up or sold, adds another factor to this. Thus, creating a “Promotion Window”.
A Promotion Window situation seems to be developing at Blackburn Rovers, owing to both key players constantly being rumoured to off to bigger and better things, and the more experienced players taking a step closer to retirement (or dropping down the divisions) each summer.
With regards to the former – it is only matter of time before a team in the topflight takes a punt on Dack. Many questioned his ability to make the step up from League One to Championship, but he made it and finished the season with 15 goals and 7 assists. For me, he is a player destined to play at the top level, but I worry that if someone takes a chance on him in the top flight, it will be someone in the bottom half of the table and he won’t be afforded the chance to play in the number 10 role behind the striker, and instead will either be played up top on his own, out wide or central midfield, were he would be very much wasted. My other worry for him is he wouldn’t be playing with Danny Graham. Rovers should hold out for £17-20m for him which may be seen as too pricey for some suitors, but you’d be looking to pay that for a similar player from the continent, not adjusted to the English game.
Second up is Darragh Lenihan. He is an absolute competitor and it would be no surprise to me if he started the season wearing the armband. A product of the academy, he is without doubt the first name on the team sheet in the back four (back five now Raya has left). He loves a tackle and a battle, and what I like about him is the way he wants to win every header, attacking the ball. At 25, for any team interested in him he has many years left on him, and his value is only likely to increase. He’s not a glamour player like Dack and that would be reflected in his price tag. He wouldn’t get the £17m+ I’d expect for Dack, but with Raya rumoured to have gone for £3m, I’d be looking for upwards of £6m for Republic of Ireland international.
David Raya was another on the list of talents I thought we might lose and so it came to be. His sale opens up a big gap both in the team and the changing room as I think the videos from Austria show he was well liked by his teammates. Although he never looked commanding when coming for crosses and you never heard him yelling at defenders, in terms of shot stoppers I don’t think there was anyone better in the league. Given he had come through our academy since the age of 16, I was sad to see him go. A lot of Rovers fans think he is a weak link, but I was excited by the prospect of him being our number one for many years – I’d have liked us to bring someone experienced in to push him and develop him for the next two years, and if you could add influence and assertiveness to his game, we’d be looking at a £10m+ goalkeeper. It wasn’t to be though, and now I’m hopefully we invest the money wisely in someone with a lot of Championship (or higher) and promotion experience. Given the signings made by Brentford along with Raya, I can see them challenging for automatic promotion this season with Raya between the sticks and it’ll be interesting to hear the opinions of those Rovers fans who said he wasn’t good enough to get us promoted if they do indeed finish the season with promotion.
As much as we want him to, Danny Graham isn’t going to play forever. The energy and fitness levels of the man have amazed me over the past two seasons, especially when I fully expected him to either leave when we got relegated or simply sulk and not feature. So much of our game relies on his running and pressing, and we’ve seen with the likes of Nuttall and Brereton (so far), neither come close to his contributions in that way. His link up play with Dack is also going to be difficult to replicate. I think this coming season could be his last big contribution at Ewood as he turns 34 just after the start of the season, but I think in Gallagher and Brereton we have potential players who can fill that gap and also add a bit more quality and pace, but it isn’t going to be a straight swap and it may take time.
The other main man on the list of players who we need to make the most of whilst we have them is Charlie Mulgrew. At age 33 now, last season I questioned whether he was in the team purely because he was captain, or because of his dead-ball abilities, as, at times his defending was questionable. He was undoubtedly a big factor in our promotion from League One, and in the Championship last time around he looked more than adequate at centre half, but I think two and three years on he relies on his teammates to often to get him out of trouble. That said, there is no-one else I would want taking a free kick within 25 yards of the opposition box. As a leader and technically quality player he is a good back-up to have on the bench and to bring on if we are chasing a game (maybe in a midfield role), but if we don’t make any signings at centre half, I’d rather see Williams alongside Lenihan.
If you look at the players who broke through in to the first team last year, in the right circumstance, I’d like to see Grayson, Magloire and Butterworth given more game time, and also see Joe Rankin-Costello get some game time. What we want to be able to do is give them opportunities when we are winning, not rely on them due to injuries, or throw them in to halt a bad run.
What is important is that if we do lose the likes of Dack and Lenihan, we get the fees they are worth, and we spend that money wisely. With them in the team I believe we are very much in a Promotion Window and we should have a good go at it, but if we lose them, it’s not a time for the money to spent in a rush; the money should be spent re-building the squad whilst remaining competitive, and working towards a promotion push in the next 3 years, not just the next 12 months. We can have a promotion push with the squad we have and we don’t need to spend millions to improve that squad to a top 6 team – if you look at last season, without injuries at Brentford, I think we would have been sniffing around the top 6 in the last weeks of the season; and that’s in our first season up, a seasons experience and know-how, and considering the sides in the division, and I don’t think our squad is too far off pushing for the play-offs.
There haven’t been too many signings in through the door so far this season and it looks as though the bulk of the Raya money has been spent on Gallagher which is sensible, and believe we’ll be looking to pick up an experienced keeper either on loan or on a free. People are moaning about the lack of activity, but I’d rather go with what I’ve got instead of panic buying on someone to make up the numbers – we have a fantastic academy that we should be giving the opportunity. Lets also not forget that Chapman and Davenport will also be like having new signings.
The fixture list hasn’t looked favourably on Rovers for the coming season and a win at home against Charlton is needed. Fulham are an unknown quantity, but they were fantastic last time around in the Championship and they have only added quality in their time in the topflight. A points total of 9 or 10 would be a great return for August, with us then having 3 winnable games against Millwall, Reading and Luton in September. If we don’t start well, fans need to consider the opposition and give Mowbray time – if the start of the season is tough, it makes sense that there will be winnable periods later in the season to make the points back up.